GBCSA’s Bakang Moeng comments on the new Integrated Resource Plan (IRP)

The plan is published by the Department of Mineral Resources & Energy and is currently out for public comments.

The Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), first promulgated in 2011 (and the last review being in 2019), is developed to ensure security of electricity supply within South Africa. This is done by balancing supply with demand whilst also considering the environment and total cost of supply.

The IRP is made to be a “living plan” with reviews occurring regularly, as necessitated by changing circumstances. There have been significant changes to the country’s circumstances, especially with the occurrence of the global pandemic in 2020. Post the 2019 review of the IRP there have been significant changes to assumptions made during that review period. These changes are outlined in the IRP as;

Eskom power generation:

• Plant performance is currently trending below 60%, with year to date (YTD) energy availability factor (EAF) at ~ 54%, well below the ~75% assumed in the IRP 2019;
• The shutdown plan of generating units, predominantly coal-fired, has been updated in line with Eskom’s strategy.

New generation & Grid Capacity:

• Procurement and rolling out of new generation capacity did not materialise as per the IRP 2019 timelines;
• Transmission capacity constraints in high resource locations further inhibit new generation capacity rollout.

Demand:

• Global economic slowdown negatively impacted Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth.

The review methodology is clearly laid out with two time horizons being considered, i.e. Horizon 1, a period up to 2030, focusing mainly on addressing prevailing generation capacity constraints and considering systems required to close the electricity supply shortage and Horizon 2, a period from 2031-2050, mainly focusing on the country’s long term electricity pathways to guide long term policy choices.

The plan ambitiously suggests more than 30 000 MW of new capacity by 2030 with Wind, Concentrated Solar Power (CSP), PV and rooftop PV accounting for close to 60% of new build.

For Horizon 2, six energy pathways are considered (i.e. Reference, Renewable energy, Renewable energy & Nuclear, Delayed Shutdown, Delayed Shutdown & Repowering and the Renewable energy & Coal Pathways) reflecting the need to ensure energy security and the reduction of GHG emissions in line with the country’s Commitments. One of the key observations for Horizon 2 is that whilst renewable and clean technologies get us closer to our desire to decarbonise the power system, it does not provide security of supply and it carries the highest cost of implementation. Another key observation, per the DMRE is that “In the period between 2031 to 2050 the system will require a massive new build programme with significant capacity required in just over a decade from now. The implication of this is that implementation of generation capacity required for this horizon including associated transmission network will have to begin in earnest”.

Ultimately the focus of the plan is on mitigation, with adaptation barely being considered. The plan somewhat misses the opportunity to meaningfully consider energy efficiency as a pathway in its own right. Our approach to energy, as an organisation, is to always exhaust energy efficiency interventions before looking into renewables and other forms of energy supply. The IRP does not cover the aspect of energy efficiency being the “First Fuel” adequately. Energy efficiency must be included and highlighted within the plan. All aspects of the IRP must have a budget, resources and funding allocated to them. If energy efficiency is not part of the plan, it will have none of these allocations.

The GBCSA has reviewed the IRP and our comments will be submitted in due course. There is still opportunity for individuals and organizations to comment on the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and comments are to be submitted by 23 March 2024. GBCSA encourages all to comment.

Follow the link below to download the IRP and to submit comments:

https://www.energy.gov.za/files/irp_frame.html

AUTHOR: BAKANG MOENG, Advocacy, Public Policy & Sustainability Specialist at GBCSA